Millennium Ark: Hot News

A reader who must remain = anonymous has=20 sent me an important analysis of how we could lose safe water in a = pandemic.=20 I've re-paragraphed it for easier online reading. A PDF is available at = the end=20 of the post. While it's based on American practice and regulation, I = suspect=20 that similar problems face water systems all over the industrial=20 world.

Water Supplies in a Pandemic

I work for a = state=20 agency assisting the water supply industry for my state. As such, I have = access=20 to water treatment plant operators and an understanding of water supply = systems.=20 My purpose in telling you this is to establish credibility.

I am=20 definitely not authorized to speak publicly for my agency. HOWEVER, as a = Civil=20 Engineer (Professional Engineer) in the business, and as a private = citizen, I've=20 made an analysis that I'd like to share with you.

Obviously, = there are=20 lots of concerns about how people might contract ordinary flu and other=20 diseases. Let me discuss a transmission route that is LIKELY to occur in = the=20 event of a pandemic: namely the public water supply = systems.

The water=20 supply system

First, let me describe the supply system. The = source of=20 public drinking water is typically surface streams and reservoirs. There = are=20 communities, most often in rural settings, that get their water = primarily from=20 wells and springs. But the great majority of cities and towns in the USA = get at=20 least a portion of their water from surface sources.

Water is = piped to=20 the water treatment plant where the water is held, temporarily, in large = ponds.=20 The water is taken into the treatment plant where large materials are = screened=20 out and then the water is put through a series of filters. These include = flocculation, and sand filters that remove even small particles down to = bacteria=20 sizes.

However, viruses are so small they cannot be filtered out. = That's=20 one of the main reasons for chlorination, along with killing any = residual=20 bacteria. State law requires there be "log 4" reduction in virus count. = That is,=20 1/10, 1/100, 1/1,000 down to 1/10,000 reduction in virus count. And = every=20 treatment plant tests the water to determine that the log 4 reduction is = being=20 achieved.

Test results are routinely submitted to drinking water=20 regulatory agencies. Sometimes during normal operation, treatment plants = cannot=20 conform and are required to take corrective actions to regain = compliance. See=20 concluding comments below.

During normal day-to-day operations = the raw=20 water (term used for water before treatment) contains all the stuff that = is in=20 rivers and reservoirs. This includes bird and animal fecal droppings, as = well as=20 dead and decaying plant and animal matter. Not a pretty sight, but = that's the=20 way it is.

Now, in the USA these plants operate quite well and = every day=20 provide people with clean, non-contaminated drinking water. Pretty = amazing when=20 you consider the volumes of water -- billions of gallons per day. When = was the=20 last time you heard about a water-borne disease = outbreak??

What=20 happens in a pandemic

Anyway, now let's consider what happens = to this=20 system during a pandemic.

Obvously, there is a concern for = sufficient=20 numbers of qualified personnel to properly operate all aspects of the = system=20 from pumps, valves, and filters to the chlorination equipment. But = here's the=20 "pandemic kicker". Ducks and geese having the disease (recall they shed = the=20 virus in large amounts even before becoming symptomatic) deposit their = droppings=20 in the streams, reservoirs, and in the holding pond right outside the = treatment=20 plant. And, of course, when they die their contaminated bodies float and = decompose in those surface water sources.

In addition, sewage = treatment=20 plants quite commonly discharge to streams and thus some levels of human = excrement also end up in surface water supplies. This too, is ongoing=20 day-to-day. Quite simply, sewage treatment plants do not remove all = pathogens or=20 chemicals. This is the source of pesticides, herbicides, = pharmaceuticals, and=20 other "endocrine disruptors".

We all live = downstream

Recall=20 the slogan, "we all live downstream". Well, we really do live = downstream. So,=20 flu-contaminated human waste is also in the raw water stream that = supplies=20 drinking water treatment plants.

Sewage treatment plant effluent = is also=20 used in many areas of the country for "water reuse" such as to water = golf=20 courses and other "non-contact" (to humans) uses. On a day-to-day basis = these=20 human wastes are removed like the other wastes from the drinking=20 water.

So, during a pandemic, the raw water sources contains both = bird=20 and human-generated flu virus.

Speaking to the manager of a large = water=20 treatment plant, I find the following. During the summer a typical = chlorine=20 stockpile for water treatment is no more than one week. Summer means the = greatest water demand during June, July and August. The chlorine is = delivered to=20 the drinking water via compressed gas bottles. One bank (say 12 = cylinders) is=20 on-line while the other bank of 12 is full and waiting to be put = on-line. That's=20 a typical hard plumbing hookup. During the winter, when water demand is = lower,=20 the bank may last more than one week.

Not if, but when, there is=20 absenteeism at the chlorine generating plant, the chlorine supply will = not be=20 there. MAJOR problem! Without chlorine, the flu virus (along with other=20 infectious agents) could be supplied to the public. Unless the water = supply is=20 turned off.

To add to credibility of this scenario, I'd direct = you to one=20 water supplier, in Denver, that has made plans to prepare for a pandemic = scenario. The article makes good reading up until he talks about = chlorine, which=20 is beyond his control. These folks have even taken to stockpiling a = 30-day=20 supply of chlorine. After that, they face the decision of supplying = contaminated=20 water, or shutting off the supply to the public. See the following from the Rocky Mountain = News.

Another=20 pandemic consideration is the length of the flu pandemic. In 12 to 18 = months=20 there will be equipment malfunctions in the vast array of equipment = throughout=20 the automated system. What breaks and when it breaks could affect the = ability to=20 treat the water (water filters through chlorination dispensing) and = deliver it=20 (pumps, valves, control systems).

It could be that, after some = critical=20 item (or combination of items) breaks, no water will be delivered during = a=20 pandemic.

Well, maybe you already knew this stuff. But this = supplies some=20 detail of this industry. In my military survival training I learned that = water=20 was the most crucial item to life. Recall also that hydration of flu = patients is=20 a key item, crucial to their survival. And clean, uncontaminated water = could be=20 in seriously short supply to millions of people during a pandemic. Might = I=20 suggest individuals seriously consider stockpiling water along with = whatever=20 else they do to prepare for a=20 pandemic.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2009-04-06-hard-fre= eze-south-midwest_N.htm